This just in: The parties represented in the political coalition of the National Assembly of Armenia came forth with a joint statement today, which runs as follows:
The constructive efforts of the Armenian side and the expectations of the international community faced the Turkish inconsistent policy of evasion and preconditions, which brought the process of ratification of the Armenian-Turkish within a reasonable timeframe into a deadlock.
So it’s dead, *for now. Not gone to shit per se, but shelved for the time being, until a solution can be found for the deadlock. Either way, here’s my issue with how the deadlock has been presented in the media: everywhere (and I mean everywhere, not just the Armenian press) I see the same statement repeated: that Turkey is putting forth the settlement of the Karabakh conflict as a precondition to normalized ties with Armenia. This is misrepresentation that’s distressing to me. Turkey’s precondition is simple: that Armenia evacuates Kelbejar and Lachin, two (2) of the seven (7) surrounding regions -meaning: nothing to do with Karabakh itself- that it has been occupying without any attempt at reviving or populating and with the admitted intention of using them later as bargaining chips. “The settlement of the Karabakh conflict” is not going to happen in 3 months, as any owner of a brain can tell – that is not the precondition. Evacuating these two pathetic little rayons IS the bargain Armenia has been waiting for, and this “precondition” is completely sensible.
Why is it sensible? Because Turkey closed its border with Armenia over that country’s occupation of Karabakh. The occupation has continued for the past 19 years, and the border has been closed for the past 19 years. How does it make Turkey look and feel if after 19 years of a fat utter nothing done over the stated reason for the closed border, Turkey just decides to open it. All sides have suffered in different ways during these 19 years, but giving without taking is not how international politics works.
What is NOT sensible in this picture, is that Turkey entered the Protocols saying they would not have preconditions, whereas they did and they knew they did. Why even bother with it if they knew Armenia would never agree to their preconditions? Erdoğan says that the Protocols talk about actions “towards ensuring regional peace” and this demand for Lacin and Kelbejer are justified within that clause, and that they thought Armenia and Azerbaijan were closer than ever to a breakthrough at the time the Protocols were signed (I wanna make a joke about them ever being wrong, but I also feel for them. Who even knows these things anymore). Was someone not clear enough? Maybe next time they should hire us to go over those texts. For now, good luck to everyone in dealing with this mess.
